Financials
Enrolment is the only variable that moves revenue
Projections for 2027 and 2028, modelled at an average member contribution of $500 per month against the fixed 19% administrative load. Because the load is set by contract when a member joins, every line below is a function of how many members are contributing. These are projections for a partnership without an operating history long enough to validate them.
Operating model
Revenue and allocations, by quarter
Every line is a function of AUM: the administrative load is 19% of it, the reserve fund 5%, D&O insurance 2%, and net operating revenue 10%. Base case shown; the three-case view follows below.
| Line item | Q1 2027 | Q2 2027 | Q3 2027 | Q4 2027 | FY 2027 | Q1 2028 | Q2 2028 | Q3 2028 | Q4 2028 | FY 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUM | $5.15MM | $6.47MM | $8.14MM | $10.24MM | $30MM | $11.35MM | $13.50MM | $16.05MM | $19.09MM | $60MM |
| Administrative load, 19% | $978,247 | $1.23MM | $1.55MM | $1.94MM | $5.70MM | $2.16MM | $2.57MM | $3.05MM | $3.63MM | $11.40MM |
| Reserve fund, 5% | $257,433 | $323,705 | $407,038 | $511,823 | $1.50MM | $567,621 | $675,019 | $802,738 | $954,622 | $3.00MM |
| D&O insurance, 2% | $102,973 | $129,482 | $162,815 | $204,729 | $600,000 | $227,049 | $270,008 | $321,095 | $381,849 | $1.20MM |
| Net operating revenue, 10% | $514,867 | $647,411 | $814,076 | $1.02MM | $3MM | $1.14MM | $1.35MM | $1.61MM | $1.91MM | $6.00MM |
Annual figures across all three cases
The quarterly table above shows the base case only, because eight quarters across three scenarios needs twenty-four columns of figures. The full case range is here.
| Line item | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Base | Upside | Conservative | Base | Upside | |
| Participants, start of period | 3,500 | 5,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 | 10,000 | 12,500 |
| Monthly contributions | $1.75MM | $2.50MM | $3MM | $3MM | $5MM | $6.25MM |
| Total annual AUM | $21MM | $30MM | $36MM | $36MM | $60MM | $75MM |
| Administrative load, 19% | $3.99MM | $5.70MM | $6.84MM | $6.84MM | $11.40MM | $14.25MM |
| Reserve fund, 5% | $1.05MM | $1.50MM | $1.80MM | $1.80MM | $3MM | $3.75MM |
| D&O insurance, 2% | $420,000 | $600,000 | $720,000 | $720,000 | $1.20MM | $1.50MM |
| Net operating revenue, 10% | $2.10MM | $3MM | $3.60MM | $3.60MM | $6MM | $7.50MM |
Investor distributions
Cash flow per $100,000 unit
Each unit receives amortisation of its capital plus 8% annual interest. Interest is constant year to year because it is calculated on the capital base rather than on the declining balance.
| Line item | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Base | Upside | Conservative | Base | Upside | |
| Capital amortisation per unit | $31,500 | $30,000 | $36,000 | $54,000 | $60,000 | $37,500 |
| Interest per unit, 8% p.a. | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 | $8,000 |
| Total per $100,000 unit | $39,500 | $38,000 | $44,000 | $62,000 | $68,000 | $45,500 |
Capital repayment
Across all 20 units. Opening balances differ by case because each case amortised a different amount before this window opens. Closing balances are derived from the opening balance less that year's amortisation, and are floored at zero.
| Line item | 2027 | 2028 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Base | Upside | Conservative | Base | Upside | |
| Outstanding capital, opening | $1.73MM | $1.76MM | $1.46MM | $1.10MM | $1.16MM | $740,000 |
| Amortised across all 20 units | $630,000 | $600,000 | $720,000 | $1.08MM | $1.20MM | $750,000 |
| Outstanding capital, closing | $1.10MM | $1.16MM | $740,000 | $20,000 | $0 | $0 |
Consolidated
The return is set by the instrument, not by the scenario
This is a fixed-return instrument. Interest is 8% of the capital base every year regardless of how the business performs, and principal repayment is capped at the amount invested. Across the full contractual term all three cases land within $3,000 of each other.
Per $100,000 unit, full 3-year term
$123,000 to $126,000
Capital returned is capped at the $100,000 invested, and interest is $24,000 in every case, being 8% of the capital base for each of the 3 years. The conservative case projects $123,000, the base case $126,000, and the upside case $124,500.
What the scenarios actually change
Not how much comes back, but how fast. A stronger case repays principal earlier, which shortens the time the capital is at risk and leaves a smaller balance outstanding at the conversion point. The table reads by column: how much of the $2,000,000 is still outstanding as each year opens.
Conservative case
- Outstanding entering 2027
- $1,730,000
- Returned across 2027 and 2028
- $1,710,000
- Total interest, full term
- $480,000
Base case
- Outstanding entering 2027
- $1,760,000
- Returned across 2027 and 2028
- $1,800,000
- Total interest, full term
- $480,000
Upside case
- Outstanding entering 2027
- $1,460,000
- Returned across 2027 and 2028
- $1,470,000
- Total interest, full term
- $480,000
The upside case shows the smallest balance outstanding entering 2027, at $1,460,000 against $1,760,000 in the base case, because it repaid more principal in the term's first year. Read as a two-year slice that looks like a smaller number; read across the full term it is the same capital returned sooner.
Notes
How to read these tables
- Figures cover 2027 and 2028. The instrument's contractual term is three years and its first year is not shown here.
- All figures assume an average member contribution of $500 per month, held constant across both years and all three cases.
- Quarterly figures are each one quarter of the annual figure, because the model holds participant count constant within a year.
- The administrative load of 19% breaks down as 5% reserve fund, 2% D&O insurance and 12% operations.
- Participant counts are stated at the start of each period, not as an average across the year.
- Interest of 8% per year is calculated on the capital base rather than the declining balance, which is why the annual figure does not fall as capital is repaid.
- Amortisation is capped at the capital still outstanding. An investor cannot receive more principal back than they contributed.
- Distribution frequency is set by the offering documents.